2010 Predictions

  • iPhone 4G – Just as the sun will rise, Apple will release a new iPhone every year. My only prediction is that the screen resolution will be more than the current 3G. They have to keep pace with the Droid, Nexus One, HTC HD2, etc…
  • First compelling HTML5 apps that will force people to get off IE – Native video support will be the driving force here. Imagine if every YouTube video was in HTML5. Native video support requires much less processing power than Flash video. All those low powered netbooks out there will finally be able to play internet video without stuttering.
  • Android market share surpasses iPhone – Enterprise will embrace Android over iPhone since Android is open. That coupled with free with contract Android phones, this is a no brainer.
  • Gowalla will be the dominate location based social “network” – Loopt will sink as foursquare and Gowalla gain. It’s too early to tell but to me it’s a coin flip between the two. However, I do think Gowalla’s model for rewards is much better than foursquare’s Mayor model. As time goes on, Mayors will be harder and harder to usurp making the “game” aspect less fun.
  • Facebook will IPO and not acquire Zynga – 2010 is ripe for IPO after all the ’09 M&A. Zynga will get left behind as Facebook will continue to grow at an outstanding rate.
  • Chrome OS won’t make a dent – How do you explain to a regular consumer that the netbook they’re about to buy is basically only a browser. “So you mean I only get Internet Explorer for the same price as this Windows (XP) machine?” I’m secretly hoping that it’s a raging success because it means WebKit gains more marketshare.
  • There will be an Apple tablet – I’m not going to say anymore. It’s all been said.

3 responses to “2010 Predictions”

  1. […] a month into the new year and already one of my 2010 predictions is rolling […]

  2. American Yak says:

    I think you’re wrong on the Chrome OS prediction, but I think it will take several hardware incarnations before it does…so maybe wrong on the prediction, though right in *this* year.

  3. Wayne says:

    @American Yak, this year, that’s the key 🙂 These are 2010 predictions after all. Unless Chrome OS comes out in tablet form, I don’t think it can compete with normal netbooks loaded w/ windows.

    As a tablet, it could be a compelling alternative to iPad the same way an Android phone is an alternative to the iPhone.